Free From Debt Due To Debt Consolidation
August 16th, 2010
In an interview conducted by Business Week, discusses Nassim Taleb's view on the biggest black swan on the market at the moment and is not shy to call the debt a "Pure Ponzi scheme." – When asked how he the largest potential source of systemic vulnerability is, he responds: "The major one is the government deficit. As an analogy: You often have planes landing two hours late. In some cases, when you have volcanoes can you land two or three weeks too late. How often have you landed two hours early? Never. It is the same with the deficit. Errors tend to go one way rather than another. When I wrote The Black Swan, I realized that there was a huge bias in the way people estimate and deficit forecasts. Typical stuff costs more, which is chronic. Governments that try to shoot for a profit almost never achieve it. The problem is getting out of control. It is becoming a pure Ponzi scheme. It is very linear: You need more and more debt just to stay where you are. And what bread Madoff will break governments. They need to find new suckers all the time. And unfortunately the world has run out of suckers. " Alas, Taleb is wrong: Ponzi or not, today UST auction will probably return in a multi-year high Bid to cover as the suckers (especially those who recycle the Fed discount window money) just refuse to go væk.Nogle other excerpts: Q: The new edition of The Black Swan omfatterhvad you call the "10 principles for a Black Swan resilient communities." A afdem is: "Citizens should not depend on financial assets as ensamling of value and should not rely on fallible ' Experts' advice tildes retirement. "Can you explain what you mean? Taleb: The problem is that people are led to invest in securities that are not deformed by people who do not quite understand the risks. The stock market is probably the best thing iverden, but the true risk of the stock market is much larger Endre presentations. And this leads to very strange situationersom say someone has a bakery, is extremely paranoid about suppliers, very cautious about risks and protect its business medpassende insurance. So at a time when he puts his $ 122,000 ibesparelser in a fund that he knows nothing about, based on risk foranstaltningerhan knows nothing about the business very few people know much about. People use "risk", but you really do not measure anything digmålinger of temperature or distance. You make a spekulativvurdering of a future event. This is not measurable, it is skøn.Og as we saw with BP, with the banking system, with Toyota, the companies themselves hiding risks safety analytikere.De is cutting corners. Companies have a tendency to hide the risks. Sånogen very careful and prudent in managing its own affairs will be quite lenient with half of his savings invested in the stock market. I say: Do not use the stock market somen collection of value. It has far more risk than you think. Jegvar an investment conference last week with mutual fund managers ogfinansielle advisors. There was a surprisingly large number of mentions of DEMU to "Black Swans" and your name came up. Do you think demennesker understand the concept? No, they do not get den.Min Black Swan idea is very different: there are events you do not kanprognose and you need to be robust to these events. If I think atnogen not understand Black Swans, I'm sure that whatever bad news happens to him will be Black Swans for him, but "white swans" to me. What should you do with your savings? Vihar this culture of financialization. People think they need to make money with their savings rather with their own business. So you endermed dentists who are more merchants than dentists. A dentist børbore teeth and use what he does in the stock market forunderholdning. People must have three sources of variation inventive income. The first is their own business, they understand quite well. Focus on it. The second is their savings. Make sure atdu retain them. The third part is the speculative part: Whatever you're willing to lose, you can invest in what you want. Iden second category-preserving value-you must have knowledge that there is something called inflation. You børundgå some categories of investments are very skrøbelige.Hvad are potential sources of vulnerability or risk that you are watching? Denmassive One is the public deficit. As an analogy: You have oftefly lands two hours late. In some cases, when you are volcanoes, you can land two or three weeks too late. How often have you landed the two-hour early? Never. It is the same with the deficit. Errors tend to Going way over the other. When I wrote The Black Swan, I realized there was a huge disparity in the way people estimate underskudog forecasting. Typical stuff costs more, which is kronisk.Regeringer trying to shoot for a profit almost never achieve it. DenProblemet is getting out of control. It is becoming a pure Ponzi scheme. It ermeget linear: You need more and more debt just to stay where you er.Og what bread Madoff will break governments. They must find new suckers all the time. Ogdesværre world has run out of suckers.Du says that what is supposed to be the safest place to invest, public debt is in some ways the most dangerous? Medmindredu invest in your own home currency in the very short term skatkammerbeviser.Fordi Governments can print more of their own currency, the risk comes from an increase in interest rates rather than a government standard.Når you have hyper inflation, deficits, or debt problems medkortfristede bills you can capture higher interest rates to compensate digfor inflation or what return you are missed. Jegtror some people get confused about Black Swans and think you ersiger that you can not predict what will happen. But you can senogle large consequential events coming down the road. ABlack Swan for Turkey is not a Black Swan for the butcher. Fornogen very naive, some events Black Swans. Some warned that they are not going to be Black Swans, if you know they can be muligtog you hedge against them. Do you have any thoughts about the U.S. financial reform package? Jegkan dislike complicated regulation. I think we should not need financial reform. What we need is definancialization. What we must do is to break the financial stranglehold on society. And you can do it megetlet from conversion of debt into equity. Banks have an interest iBygningen debt, but equality in society is far more stable than debt. Såproblemerne has not been addressed. They are doing something that varkompliceret even more complicated. We need some basic reformersnarere than a very, very precise guidelines for how to behave. What are you working on now? My next is about faith, mostly. How we are suckers and how we should live in a world we do not forstår.Fed will meet tomorrow and expectations for a publication of the "QE2" vrimler.Det is the great Catch 22 of their own making. The economy has certainly weakened to the point where the "bottom bouncing", which is called the recovery has given place to the actual further decline. Fed said that "if the economic outlook were to worsen significantly," they needed to look at further stimulans.Det have and will, if they do not notice tomorrow for further QE will the stock market crater within short order. (They are already making money on, just not in public). If they do advertise more (public) relief will Dollar continues it several months at 10% decline and will enter currency crisis fase.De must choose their own poison with other ord.De will not allow the stock market to collapse because it is the only thing they point på.Lad stock market to collapse and there will be absolutely nothing left to fool Joe-six-pack with: If they do announce the QE2 will make the U.S. out completely alone and apart from the rest of the world who have decided (was forced) that "frugality" is their necessary stier.Husk that it was the U.S. ratings agencies to focus on Europe's "weak sisters" in the first omgang.Nu after residents have had their " sobering moment, "the U.S. will be completely alone and in the spotlight while pouring more alcohol in the punch bowl! We come into the greatest danger zone ever for Dollar, because creditors will follow the U.S." party on "with no existing interest rates and borrowing needs approaching infinity . These two events together is by definition mutually exclusive! Perhaps there is another "trick their sleeve" if there is … what could it be? The logic when it comes to what these people do, does nothing but logic indicates that a full-blown currency crisis is in short orden.Verden will stand for it no longer. "Cross to the positive page "in Gold looks imminent," QE2 "is just the elixir to make this happen! Envision a situation where the Fed steps up with their printing press rages, while positions from far and wide" frame their bids "knowing that this is the last chance to move something the size, this "exciting capital" will have to go somewhere and commodities in general will benefit, especially gold and Sølv.Den parabolic move that "nut case" have believed all along would come may well be here and now! Fed has their hands tied and Treasury need to borrow more just to keep alive the same time vaults are low on physical metal and even the guy on the street, the consultation of "Gold." Imagine a more exciting and scary time to be alive and a witness to history.



